Earth's Temperature - Conclusion

III. LONG TERM PREDICTION OF EARTH TEMPERATURES

The issues herein are not the same as meteorological forecasting. The latter is now being referred to as climate forecasting as though the prediction of earth temperatures can simply use the analytical models of meteorology. The basis of meteorological forecasts is having thermodynamics (atmospheric temperature, pressure, humidity and wind speed, perhaps with clouds) measurements to insert into analytical models that attempt to account for atmospheric movements, both global and local. This is very simplified, but that’s the essence of it. None are really very, very good (i.e., very precise). Constituent species do not enter into the models, unless you include the limited amount of water vapor info. The basis of earth-temperature predictions, or forecasts are analytical models that must account for all that is in the meteorological models, AND the heat transfer between sun and the earth-atmosphere system, including heat exchange between the atmosphere and earth surface and within the atmosphere due to a variety of constituents, air mass movement, AND the time varying aspects of all of these! To say that this analysis is formidable is the understatement of the century. No one can predict future earth temperatures, even if they knew the constituents and their time variable concentrations. You would have to know this on a time varying basis at each locale on earth, AND the response of life on earth. The more CO2 generated, the more that is absorbed by plant life. The more evaporation that occurs, the more rain we get to settle out particulates back to the surface. Volcanic eruptions have produced particulate clouds covering major portions of the earth. These, in turn, cause huge changes in climate due to solar radiation being increasingly reflected away from earth and absorption in the upper atmosphere. But it is eventually dispersed, and things return to more normal conditions. The primary species (combustion products) of power plants, engines, wood burning from the use of hydrocarbons are CO2 and H20. The relative amounts depend on the length of the hydrocarbon chain to be used. But, in general, simple chemistry shows that the molecular amount of water vapor produced ALWAYS exceeds that of the carbon dioxide. The effects of excess water vapor in the heat transfer equations far exceeds those for the effects of CO2. It is a better radiator and absorber. And there is more of it. CO2 is a heavier molecule, will occupy a lower portion of atmospheric space, and will have greater access to plant life for absorption.

With respect to spectral line radiation analysis, a separate and distinct analytic model is required for each separate constituent that radiates or absorbs, due to its unique radiation characteristics. In general, these are known, but what is not known are all constituents present at a given locale and their distribution in the atmosphere. Ah, if only we could catalog them all, all over the earth and have our leader tell us what happens tomorrow. The best modeling is done for solar radiation inputs at the outer reaches of the atmosphere, black body type earth surface radiation from specific locales where the surface characteristics are known, and the condition that most of the earth is covered by water. In one sense, this makes the Stephan-Boltzmann equation easier to use. Black body radiation is emitted in proportion to temperature to the fourth power! This is very important, since increasing temperature produces radiation loss in the IR with exponential increases! Can you find an Al Gore to tell you this? Sometimes, I am politically minded!

The most complicated analytical models are those of atmospheric movement and prediction of thermodynamic variables. Boundary conditions of earth temperature, solar inputs, constituent concentrations and variation at any given point in time just illustrate how difficult the problem is.
The claim that scientists have shown the earth temperature has increased by a fraction of a degree Celsius in the last decade is absurd. It is even more preposterous to claim it will increase by untold degrees in the next two decades or century.

IV. POLITICAL AND POWER AGENDAS DO NOT HELP

Inconvenient Truth Guy…worth has increased from 2 to about 100 million pedaling global warming in the last decade

United Nations…added untold bodies to mine this epidemic, with outstretched hands for money and power leading to a one-world government

Environmental advocates just love the thoughts of Mother Earth worship, power and sharing the wealth

The “go green” community… is making others green with envy at their successes in new rules and regulations

USA Today, Nov 23, 2009: Lawsuits being filed against private companies and utilities for “global warming” damages

How many will go along with this to advance their own cause?